West Michigan’s economy will continue to grow in 2019, however, it’s also slowing down as business leaders confidence in the economy is beginning to fade. Those were the major themes as Real Estate giant Colliers International Thursday hosted the 19th annual Economic and Commercial Real Estate Forecast at the DeVos Place.
Dr. Paul Isely, of the Seidman College of Business at Grand Valley State University presented the forecast. He says, data shows that 2019 will likely start well, but the probability of a recession at the end of the year remains, especially if business leaders talk themselves into one.
“Well it’s real,” Isley said. “A lot of the reasons you end up in a recession is self-fulfilling prophesies-- ‘I’m worried about things, so I am going to cut back,’ the questions is how much of those things are real and how much of those things are shadows? We are starting to see more and more real things, in which case, it’s not just talk, it’s there.”
Those real things Isley says are a global economy that is slowing down coupled with escalating trade tensions at the federal level. He says business are becoming reluctant to invest and international uncertainty continues to build.
“Well what is happening is this uncertainty is causing firms to keep even more cash in reserve,” Isley said. “Not knowing what is going to happen with trade, not knowing what is going to happen with the government shutdown, not knowing what is going to happen with regulation, leads businesses to say ‘we need to wait until we are sure about the direction we are heading before we invest money.”
Still Isley says, the good news is that while a nationwide recession may be on the horizon in 2020, here in West Michigan the recession will be shallow and short.
