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Clinton's Michigan lead over Trump shrinking...or is it?

Gage Skidmore

A recent statewide poll of likely general election voters shows Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s advantage over Republican nominee Donald Trump is shrinking.

But what are the internal data telling pollsters?

Lansing-based Epic-MRA conducted a late October survey of 600 registered Michigan voters, 30-percent of those surveyed by cellphone.

That poll indicates Democrat Hillary Clintons 11 point lead earlier this month is now down to a seven point lead today.

If the general election were held today, Clinton would receive 41 percent of the vote, Republican Donald Trump would get 34, Libertarian Gary Johnson nine and Green party candidate Jill Stein three percent.

“However, when you look at the internals, and one internal measurement in particular, it may not be that close.”

That’s EPIC-MRA President, Bernie Porn, he tells us the survey also asked respondents about their enthusiasm to vote. On a scale of zero to 10, with 10 being the most enthusiastic, Porn believes this is most revealing with Trump leading the least enthusiastic crowd in the zero to three range.

“He has a 4 point lead 28 to 24over Hillary Clinton. However, among those that are in the next category, about four to six out of 10 in terms of their enthusiasm to vote, Hillary is leading by 15 points.”

For voters who rate themselves a seven or eight she has 13 point lead and a 1o point advantage of most enthusiastic voters.

“Which suggests that a lot of those who are most supportive of giving him a lead among the least enthusiastic are likely maybe not to participate in the election and indeed the zero to three rating, 24 percent of them, one out of every four, said that they are undecided about the election and those often have a less of a tendency to participate.”

The Epic-MRA has a four percent plus or minus margin for error.

Patrick Center, WGVU News.  

Patrick joined WGVU Public Media in December, 2008 after eight years of investigative reporting at Grand Rapids' WOOD-TV8 and three years at WYTV News Channel 33 in Youngstown, Ohio. As News and Public Affairs Director, Patrick manages our daily radio news operation and public interest television programming. An award-winning reporter, Patrick has won multiple Michigan Associated Press Best Reporter/Anchor awards and is a three-time Academy of Television Arts & Sciences EMMY Award winner with 14 nominations.