A made-up polling firm is facing backlash for releasing imaginary numbers, including for some of Michigan’s key races.
In June, Wedgewood Polls released a survey that showed state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) down to single digit support in her bid for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination. On Tuesday, Wedgewood admitted its data wasn’t real.
McMorrow blames the fake poll, in part, for her campaign’s collapse.
“Donations dried up ... Volunteers were devastated and pleading for guidance on what to do ... Reporters hounded me with calls to drop out,” McMorrow wrote on social media.
At the time, reputable firm Susquehanna Polling and Research Inc. also listed McMorrow in third place against the party's eventual nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Congresswoman Haley Stevens (D-MI 11).
But the Susquehanna survey placed the percentage of undecided voters at 49%. Wedgewood’s made-up numbers said only 6% of voters were still making up their mind.
Earlier this month, Wedgewood released another Michigan “poll”. This time, it showed Democrats heavily ahead of Republicans in the U.S. Senate and governor’s race.
The truth about Wedgewood Polls came to light after a team from elections blog FiftyPlusOne dug into its work. In its statement, Wedgewood claimed it was an “experimental project” to expose lack of oversight when it came to public polling.
“If a fictional entity run by a small group of industry veterans can be integrated into major poling averages and cited b major news organizations, the standards for how poling data is vetted, aggregated, and reported must change,” the statement read.
It’s unclear who the “industry veterans” in this case are, or whether anyone associated with Wedgewood Polls actually had any polling experience. FiftyPlusOne reported the firm offered the names Jack Sims and Andrew Prater.
Sims previously led the Florida-based polling company SoCal Strategies LLC. But in an email, the company said he no longer worked there.
“Jack Sims is not currently employed with SoCal Strategies and has not been for a year. His actions are his own and do not reflect on SoCal Strategies. We have no further comment,” the statement read.
Wedgewood Polls’ website appears to be taken down. Its email is also returning a delivery failed error. A GoFundMe page for a poll into the "Nebraska Senate/Governor race" is still active and had raised $500 out of a $5,000 goal Wednesday evening. The firm claimed its Nebraska polling was real.
The group's website lists Wedgewood Polls as being based in Boston. However, no such business exists in Massachusetts business records.
Veteran Michigan pollster Richard Czuba, who runs the Glengariff Group, said he was deeply frustrated by the lies. He said it’s not the first time that dubious polling has affected Michigan’s politics.
In 2017, a purported poll from Delphi Analytica, that showed singer Kid Rock beating then-incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow in a hypothetical match up.
“Nobody had ever heard of the firm. Nobody heard of them since," Czuba said. "Nobody saw any of the details of the poll. And yet, it got all these headlines. So, these polls are used to create a narrative. And we have to be very careful about the narrative they’re used for."
An analysis from FiveThirtyEight at the time showed a huge bump in prediction market support for Kid Rock, real name Robert Ritchie, after that.
Czuba said junk polls can sometimes crowd out legitimate ones when looking at polling aggregates, which average out a collection of surveys over time. He stressed people should be deeply skeptical of any poll they see and should understand its methodology before taking its results to heart.
Czuba argued people need to stop relying on surveys as anything more than a snapshot in time.
“Polling is a technique in politics to help campaigns understand the chess board and, if you move one piece, what happens to the next piece, how the numbers move, what messages motivate,” Czuba said.
Still, others like McMorrow see the admission from Wedgewood Polls as a reason to stop listening to polls altogether.
“Trust is already at an all-time low. We don't get out of this mess without rebuilding trust. And media - who loves to ride the drama of a pollercoaster - needs to take a hard look at what's legitimate and what's not. If this teaches us anything - DON'T GET COMPLACENT AND DON'T TRUST THE POLLS,” McMorrow tweeted.
Still, throwing out polls altogether may have its own consequences, according to Michigan State University political science professor Matt Grossman. He said they still have a valid function.
“For people who are trying to make strategic decisions like donors and interest groups and candidates, I think it would be a mistake to react to this by saying we don’t need the polling information because, obviously, it’s giving you a lot more information than your gut instincts,”
Grossman said it is important to remember that even credible polls have a margin of error.
