U.S. light vehicle sales outlook for 2026 is 16 million units. That’s compared with 16.4 million sold last year. Tariff threats, the Iran conflict, inflation and interest rates are creating headwinds.
“But yet, North American production and U.S. sales are kind of chugging along.”
Mike Wall is Executive Director of Automotive Analysis at S&P Global Mobility. He tells us affordability is shaping the forecast. American consumers are strapped. Monthly car payments are at an all-time high; over $750 a month.
“Loan terms are getting stretched. And for those consumers who would have been formerly in the entry level of the market are moving to used. So, for automakers to really continue to drive sales they have to get creative. They either have to come out with some, maybe entry-level trim levels to try to bring in those buyers or other new models to try to, again, drive some additional units in the market.”
Wall predicts as the year progresses automakers will offer more incentives. Until then, car buyers should shop around, including outside the their market area with greater availability and deals.