“Well, the surprise in this month’s survey turned out to be the new wave of optimism we are receiving.”
Brian G. Long is Director of Supply Management Research in the Seidman College of Business at Grand Valley State University.
“Our index of business confidence came in at a two-year high. And the comments from our survey participants were also upbeat for the first time in quite a few months.”
New orders swung from -26 in January to +3 and production output also improved. Employed remained steady.
“Well, much as we expected, the down tick we reported last month turned out to be a one-off event. This month’s numbers came in what we could best describe as ‘flat’ but headed in the right direction. Namely, up.”
Long says barring a ‘Black Swan’ event, the positive February numbers suggest a recession is unlikely in 2024.