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Models predicting coronavirus economic impact to West Michigan economy

Paul Isely, Associate Dean in the Seidman College of Business at Grand Valley State University
Grand Valley State University
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Numbers from China, South Korea, Japan and Washington state are being used to model the economic change West Michigan will likely experience from the COVID-19 outbreak.

Industries at highest risk and that will be hit the hardest are arts & entertainment, recreation, accommodation, food services and transportation.

“We’re expecting very deep hits on those sectors and that will last for more than a few weeks.”

Paul Isely is associate dean in the Seidman College of Business at Grand Valley State University. He says those sectors make up about 5-percent of the local economy. Still, a painful situation for workers in those fields.

“We’re looking for $1.2 to $2 billion taken out of the West Michigan economy. Overall in the West Michigan economy, we’re a little over $61 billion for a year. So, this is going to happen for a very short period of time. It’s going to be very painful in that month to two-month range. But most of the modelers are right now showing a pretty strong return as we hit the second half of the year.”

However, before we get there, Isely is certain the economy will experience a shallow recession.

I’m Patrick Center