Mark Sanchez: It is kind of a Captain Obvious conclusion. Although to their credit the Citizens Research Council that put this out last week, it really does quantify exactly what's going on. Now there's been kind of this notion known for quite a while that what's called the “social determinants of health”; your income, your ability to afford care, to afford health coverage, transportation, the safety of the neighborhood and the community where you live, environmental issues, all these issues play in to your health outcomes and how healthy are you? So again, this came out a week ago from the Citizens Research Council, kind of looked at these issues, these social determinants of health that influence the health of a population. And they said there is a direct correlation between income levels and how healthy are people? And they give a couple of data points here. There's some data in the report. And first in Michigan in 2024 ranked 29th in the nation for overall health status. That's by an outfit called America's Health Rankings by the United Health Foundation.
Separate from that in the Citizens Research Council report is some data that says cardiovascular disease, this as of 2023, 20.2% of the folks who earn $25,000 a year or less had cardiovascular disease. As you go up in that income chain, that drops to 12.6% for folks who make $25,000 to $50,000. Go down to 5.9% incidence rate for cardiovascular disease for folks who make $75,000 or more.
Meanwhile, in diabetes, $25,000 and less, one in five people, more than one in five, 21.4% have diabetes when you're making that low income. That drops down to 15.9% between $25,000 and $50,000 a year. Then 8.8% for people who make $75,000 or more a year.
So yes, this is not just a notion, this is fact that there is a direct correlation between your income level and your health status. Basically, the less you make, the less ability you have to afford care, to afford coverage if you have it available, and to afford, you know, healthy foods and to eat well.
The point of the Citizens Research Council report is there's so much attention focused right now on the cost of health care, the cost of health coverage. And we're seeing these double-digit premium increases for the third year now. And there's a lot of finger-pointing and a lot of folks laying blame. But what the Citizens Research Council is really saying in this report, if you wish to improve the health of the population, you have to go beyond the affordability of health care and health coverage, what the hospitals charge, what doctors charge, and you need to look more and more deeply into these social determinants of health. Kind of take that holistic approach to get the population healthier because these chronic illnesses, asthma, diabetes, obesity, we can go down the list, depression, back pain, these are the real drivers of higher healthcare costs. Yes, on top of what the pharmaceutical costs have been doing the last few years for prescription drugs. But it's chronic illness that really drive medical claims and really drive healthcare costs and spending higher. So, the council is saying focus on these issues. And no, these are not easy issues to address, quite the opposite, but that's where you can start getting some traction and it's not going to take just a couple of years to do it. It's going to take a long-term commitment and investment. At least that's the conclusion of this research report.
Patrick Center: We're talking with Crain’s Grand Rapids Business staff writer, Mark Sanchez. Michigan farm exports, they have collapsed and there are those who are saying it's fallout from the Trump tariffs.
Mark Sanchez: Yeah, this is a report to my coworker, Abby Poirier, did the other day. Agriculture is a big, big industry in Michigan and we're seeing some significant declines this year in exports. Michigan wheat shipments down 89% for the first half of 2025. Soybean meal exports, and there are a lot of growers here in West Michigan that grow and produce soybeans, those exports are down 46% for the year through mid-year. And that's according to the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development.
The leaders in the State Department of Agriculture, they're pointing to the retaliatory tariffs and tariffs during this trade war we've gotten into this year. And other countries have responded and that's affecting exports all across the economy.
Here in Michigan, its affecting soybeans, again, wheat, corn, sugar beets, all these agricultural products that are grown here in the state and exported. And last year was about a record $2.9 billion in ag exports from Michigan.
So, this is a real issue for farmers and for the growers who rely on those exports as a part of their business. We're not sure where this is going to go, but you know, the top three markets for U.S. Ag exports in 2024 were China, Canada, Mexico, and that was about $91.1 billion or almost half of the U.S. agricultural exports. And there's a lot of data out there now showing the effect of what's going on with this trade war and how it's affecting agricultural exports.
Patrick Center: Is the concern that it takes so long to build these markets and then when you lose those markets, that market share, there's another country that can also produce the agricultural goods to take the U.S. produced place.
Mark Sanchez: Any business in any sector of the economy, there's always a competitor that's going to do it if you don't. And if other countries aren't buying from the U.S. they'll find somebody else to buy from if they don't wish to pay these tariffs, importing the products that are exported from the U.S. And yes, it takes a while to build those markets. And when you disrupt that, they don't come back instantly.
Patrick Center: We will stick with the Michigan economy, and the aging population is beginning to catch up.
Mark Sanchez: Yeah, and this is another story, I wish I had some better news to do with this program this week, Patrick, but this is a story done by a coworker, Dustin Walsh at Crain’s Detroit. It’s looking at some data that was put out with the University of Michigan annual economic outlook the other day, late last week. And basically, the point is Michigan can no longer outrun what's called the “Gray Wave.” We have an aging population.
And because of that, there's some outlooks for kind of a stagnant economic growth and sluggish wage growth. And that's kind of a situation that the folks at the U of M say we're going to be dealing with for quite a while unless we can kind of turn around. Now, obviously you can't do anything about people aging and the boomers aging and retiring, but how do you get this population growth back in the state? This has been an issue for a few years now. You know what the U of M saying is the Michigan's economy is kind of stalled out right now and they predict economic stagnation that's going to persist through 2026.
As we hit those headwinds and they're met with that aging population, folks leaving the workforce and retiring and the younger innovative population that can spark new companies, spark new economic growth and new activity, they're looking elsewhere. Obviously, there's a tendency to look to warm weather climates. Bottom line, Michigan's not seeing the type of population growth that other states are experiencing, and that has ramifications long term for the state's economy.
Overall, the aging population is one issue built into the forecast that the U of M put out late last week. But overall, there's kind of an outlook for some more job losses for 2026 in the state. So, the unemployment rates are predicted to go up to about 5.6% in the second quarter of 2026. That's up from about 5.3%. So that's nudging up.
Per capita incomes predicted to hit a modest 3.9% by the end of the year and then slow to 3% in 2026. There are some suggestions that the pain could be a little worse depending on what happens to the national economy, and what happens to the auto industry. But right now, those are just basically some predictions for Michigan to just kind of slow down a little bit as the U.S. economy overall is doing as well.
Patrick Center: Crain's Grand Rapids Business staff writer, Mark Sanchez, thank you so much.
Mark Sanchez: Thank you, Patrick.