Patrick Center: Ambassador, can you tell us about your bracelets?
Marie Yovanovitch: The bracelets haha... So when I was in Ukraine, the minister of health gave me my very special bracelet with a special message for President Putin back in 2016 and I’ve worn it ever since. And I would actually bulk order them as well as coffee cups with the same little slogan and give them to the VIP visitors, including, you know, members of Congress, just that they would, you know, really get the point. Of course they were coming to Ukraine to find out about Ukraine, the war in Ukraine, the malign activities of Ukraine beyond the force-on-force war. But you know, nobody is expecting a straight-laced ambassador like me to give them that kind of gift. And so it always, you know, it always a kind of made the point.
PC: Can you tell our audience what it says. I will bleep out the bad word.
MY: It says “F-U” Putin.
PC: You've studied the man. What does the West need to understand, especially when it comes to this military action in Ukraine?
MY: Yeah. I think that, you know, it's a really good question, because I don't know to what extent we really have visibility into Putin’s decision-making right now, into his inner circle and what information he's getting. Because I think, you know back, you know, in prehistory, February 22nd of this year. You know, perhaps from Putin's point of view and the information he had and he was good to go. You know, though, the war would take 2 or 3 days he come in as a conquering hero, he be all set up for the 2024 presidential elections and win in another landslide because I think he made 3 grave miscalculations. The first was that the Russian military was really strong, really powerful and could get the job done and done quickly and surgically. The second was that Ukraine really isn't a country. The Ukrainian people are not a distinct people and that they would welcome him because, you know, they really are just little Russians as they are sometimes called in Russia. And I think you found out quite the contrary just as he did with his own military and the 3rd was that NATO was a spent force, we we're not unified, we didn't know what our mission was that Biden particularly after the fall from Afghanistan was not a credible leader of the West and would not be able to galvanize and unify NATO and other allies and partners into a unified consolidated front against this incursion. And I think he, you know, miscalculated on all sides. But from his point of view, with the information we presume he had. These were all logical decisions. You know, from our point of view, they were dead wrong.
PC: And yet he is, for lack of a better word, he's cagey. He's not necessarily easy to read. So when you see these missteps, what should that tell us?
MY: Well, I think he had incorrect information. He was believing what he wanted to believe. I think that he probably also….his closest Advisors, if they know are not giving him all of the bad news. You know, Colin Powell had when he was Secretary of state, he had 13 rules. And one of the rules was if you're not getting bad news, you're not doing your job because that means that your staff is afraid to tell you. We're seeing a part of that with Putin himself where he is probably not getting all the bad news. And so if you can't, you know, this is a classic thing with dictators that they punish the messenger. And so people quickly learned of that they they're going to shape message to suit the president.
PC: I know you're not Nostradamus. But when he when you take all the information that you do have and you're seeing the action on the ground and the reaction of NATO. What are your expectations as this conflict moves forward?
MY: Well, I mean, I think that's a tough one but I think in the near term it's going to be a grinding war this summer with continued high losses on both sides. My hope is that now that the longer-range artillery has arrived from the United States and more will be coming, that it will balance out the Russian advantage in this respect and will make a difference. But I think it is going to continue to be a grinding war with heavy losses to the summer. And I think then in the fall with bad weather arriving, there will be a natural pause as both armies which are exhausted now and will only be more exhausted and more depleted in the fall sort of take stock and there will be a political taking stock as well. What do the facts on the ground tell the political leadership in Moscow and in Ukraine. Will either side be ready to be serious about negotiations? Will the facts on the ground advantage. one side of the negotiating table or not. And I think that will determine a lot.
PC: You and I have talked about context, in the morning when you wake up, where do you get your news and what would you recommend for our audience as some of the best resources for following the conflict in Ukraine.
MY: Yeah. So in the morning, as I'm getting ready and you know, pettering around I'm listening to CNN just to get, you know, the broad range of what are the big news items out there. But I'm always listening for news on Ukraine and Russia and then I get on the computer and I start looking at my news feeds. And there are a couple that may not be known to your audience. One in particular is the Ukraine daily which comes out of Kyiv, it's run by independent journalists and it is the best reporting from the front in Ukraine and also provides us. There's a summary sheet and you can dig deeper into the actual articles but it also has a summary of, you know, international news on Ukraine, Russia. And so if you read that in the morning and it comes in at about 03:00AM Eastern standard time. You're good to go.
PC: The January 6th hearings are underway. You were the target of then president Donald Trump and us near campaign involving Ukraine and the impeachment trial. That big picture taken all together. How should Americans view the former president.
MY: Well, this is a man I'm the only president of the United States who has been impeached twice. That is the distinction, if you would want and you know, for cause the first time he used his office for which is the highest office in the land for personal and political gain when he held back on the job once the anti-tank missiles that we now all know about from Ukraine in exchange for what he hoped would be Ukrainian investigation into the Biden family and then the second impeachment was for the January 6 events.
And I think at the time that impeachment we didn't know the half of it now. Now with the January 6 committee hearings. We're hearing about the conspiracy really that reach to the highest levels and how broad it was to undermine a legitimate presidential election and to not transfer power peacefully. This goes to the heart of our democracy to any democracy which is about free and fair elections. And then the peaceful transfer of power and so I think we are in very serious times and we need to all of us need to do everything we can to safeguard our democracy.
PC: You're receiving the Arthur Vandenberg award from the world Affairs Council of Western Michigan, how does it make you feel to be recognized and recognize under the banner of a great U.S. Senator?
MY: You know, it's an honor and it is so humbling that here in Michigan, you know, not a place where I know very many people that, you know, your colleagues and friends would think that I'm worthy of such an honor and that is this honor. I have been quoting senator Vandenberg words about politics needs to stop at the water's edge for my whole career but I didn't know that much about him until this came up and so it was an opportunity to learn about him. And it was incredible to me that he moved from being, you know, an isolationist, a really confirmed isolationist that as the world changed. He changed too and he became a leader and a committed leader to participate in the world and to engage with the world in the interests of the United States. He called it light and self-interest, which is why we conduct foreign policy. We don't do it because we are good people even though we are good people. We do it because it is in the interest of the United States. And I think senator Vandenberg life and career really exemplify that.
PC: And you've written a book.
MY: It's called lessons from the edge and what I hope it does is share with people through story, it’s a memoir, stories of my life, hopefully in a readable fashion, what diplomacy is all about. Because I think that many people wonder it's a little bit of a black box and after I testified publicly in 2019, I got a lot of letters from people asking to write a book and to tell them Warren--said this is my response to those people. This is what diplomacy is all about. And this is why it's important to the American people.
PC: The honorable ambassador Marie Yovanovitch, thank you so much for your time and thank you for your service.
MY: Thank you.
