New orders for manufacturing companies have dropped to their lowest level since early 2024, says Paul Isely, associate dean and professor of economics at Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.
He predicts job growth to continue to flatten, especially in the manufacturing sector.
“Some of the highest paid jobs we have for middle income people and it’s dropping really fast and a lot of this has to do with government uncertainty around regulations that go with cars and government uncertainty around tariffs.”
Isely says those jobs are being replaced with positions in government, healthcare and hospitality which typically pay less than manufacturing – an industry already pivoting to replace workers with AI to improve supply chain efficiency.
“What is that doing? Its increasing productivity because we need fewer workers to make the same amount of stuff.”
Isely’s data shows employment growth will stay around 2%, with AI continuing to have major impact.
But there’s another factor.
“As these middle managers lose their jobs and these new young college grads who can’t get jobs because AI has replaced the function of what they were doing, they’re getting creative and we’re starting to see an entrepreneurial spirit in West Michigan we haven’t seen this strong in many years.”
Isely is monitoring an increase in the number of new businesses which may lead to job growth in previously unrecognized areas.
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