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California voters this week made the biggest Democratic move yet against President Trump's effort to reshape voting maps in favor of Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.
They overwhelmingly approved a map for congressional districts that could help Democrats win five more seats in the U.S. House. The ballot language itself referred to Texas, where Trump convinced Republican leaders to draw new lines this summer aimed at turning five seats for his party.
States usually redistrict at the start of the decade following the decennial census. But Trump has set off a redistricting race across the country, saying that keeping the Republican advantage in the U.S. House, now just a few seats, is key to his agenda. It also would continue to protect him from investigations by a Democratic-led House.
So far, the GOP has gained an edge in five seats in Texas, one in Missouri, one in North Carolina and a potential net gain of one to two in Ohio.
That means the GOP could pick up nine or so seats in the midterms next year, with the potential to pick up another four or five if Republicans in Indiana, Kansas, Florida or Louisiana decide to redistrict. But that scenario could change if court challenges prevail, among other factors.
Meanwhile, Democrats tilted five seats their way in California. And, a sixth in Utah seems likely to move toward Democrats. In Virginia, Democrats have started a process that could result in two or three seats. Maryland and Illinois might add one seat each — but Democrats haven't decided to go for them yet.
Overall, Democrats have fewer options than Republicans.
How does redistricting work again?
There are 435 members of the U.S. House representing about 760,000 people each. Every 10 years, as populations change, the national census shows how many seats each state gets and the states draw new district maps.
However people vote, the way their votes are divided up into districts can determine how many seats are won by Republican or Democratic candidates.
Gerrymandering is when the party in power draws the lines to favor a party or group. Gerrymandering for political advantage is legal in many states. But as a result, voters can see their votes weakened and their districts become less competitive, which can lead to a more polarized, gridlocked Congress.
It's illegal to gerrymander to dilute the voting power of a racial group. That's often done by "cracking" communities into different districts or "packing" them together into one district.
But partisan gerrymandering sometimes overlaps with racial gerrymandering.
Trump has lots of places to go for Republican advantages
Trump's calls for redistricting come as his party faces a tough trend next year. In the last five midterm elections, the party that held the White House has lost seats in the U.S. House.
In the states, a party typically needs control of the legislature to redistrict for its political gain, and Republicans have that in more states than Democrats do.
Since Texas redistricted, Trump has brought Republican lawmakers from Indiana and Kansas to the White House to make the case and urged Florida to follow. Louisiana Republicans are considering their options.
Some Republicans have stopped short of granting Trump's wish. Ohio Republicans could force a lopsided redistricting this year, when the state's current maps expire, but so far they've struck a deal with Democrats for fairly marginal changes. Kansas Republicans say they don't have enough votes from their own party to pass redistricting in the legislature — yet.
It's worth noting that lawsuits may factor in. A Texas judge is considering a case after a trial there and Republicans have sued in California. And a case before the U.S. Supreme Court could loosen laws against racial gerrymandering and end up favoring Republican redistricting.
Aside from California, Democratic-led states are just starting to take steps
Democrats' options are more limited. They control fewer legislatures, and in states where they do, there tend to be more restrictions around redistricting.
Some Democratic-led states, including California, and fewer Republican ones, have commissions in various forms designed to reduce political influence on the process. That's why it took a public vote to sideline the commission and redraw lines in California.
Other Democratic states have lengthy constitutional or legal steps required to redistrict. New York can't complete the redistricting process in time for 2026. Virginia Democratic lawmakers voted to start a process aimed at flipping a couple seats, but redistricting there would still require another vote by them in January and then it would go to voters.
Illinois Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker says he hasn't ruled out redistricting but in that state Republicans already only hold three of 17 seats. Maryland could redistrict, but that state only has one Republican seat. Both states are under pressure from Democrats to do what they can.
As Republicans point out as evidence of partisan gerrymandering, some Democratic-majority states have barely any districts represented by Republicans in the first place. Massachusetts has nine Democrats in its nine seats.
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