LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Vice President JD Vance is expected to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel today. It's in the midst of threats to a fragile ceasefire after Israel accused Hamas of killing two of its soldiers, and Israel responded with a wave of airstrikes that killed dozens of Palestinians. Before heading to Israel, Vance said, disruptions are to be expected, but he still believes this U.S.-brokered deal is the only path to sustainable peace. For more on the politics surrounding the Israeli side of the deal, I'm joined by Natan Sachs. He's a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute with a focus on Israeli foreign policy and domestic politics. Good morning and thank you for being on the program.
NATAN SACHS: Good morning, Leila. Thanks for having me.
FADEL: So, Natan, I think the big question is, is Prime Minister Netanyahu committed to this deal and incentivized to stick not only with this first phase of the plan, but enter into the second, more tricky phase where negotiations around the future of Gaza and a permanent ceasefire happen?
SACHS: Well, both sides to this deal entered somewhat disingenuously. Neither of them believed that the other side was actually going to fulfill its commitments. When Israel signed on to this deal, there was very little belief in Israel that Hamas certainly would disarm as it was supposed to by this deal, something that seems to have gone by the wayside, nor that it would stick to it, as indeed we saw yesterday. But Netanyahu himself came in with very little intention of not responding to that. So the incentive structure - it depends. It depends, especially on what enforced the deal in the first place, and that's Donald Trump.
Netanyahu came in because of pressure from Trump. We saw that in the White House. We saw him issue a truly humiliating apology to Qatar, humiliating from his perspective, from a political perspective, and therefore responding to this pressure. So Vance showing up in the region now helps that, and it adds to pressure domestically that is split. On the one hand, Netanyahu is pulled to enforce the ceasefire as he sees it very strongly, but on the other hand, also a country that's very wary of war and does want the war to end, as President Trump has promised.
FADEL: So there is some domestic pressure on Netanyahu as well to end the war. And as you point out, most people really don't believe that Hamas will disarm as part of this deal. And right now, as you said, Vance is there, but Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff - key figures in the administration who brokered this deal - are also expected - or also met with Netanyahu yesterday. What do you expect they will be saying in these meetings and saying to Netanyahu?
SACHS: Well, Netanyahu and Israel, in general, from the start of the war had two goals, and there were two goals that, by and large, the Israeli public was behind. One was disarming Hamas in the Gaza Strip, removing it as a fighting force there and a governing structure there, and the other is - was returning all the hostages home, as many of them as alive as possible. And the priorities between these two goals have been split in Israel, where you have Netanyahu's very extreme right coalition, favoring going all the way with Hamas, an unending war for now, at least, reoccupying the Gaza Strip. And for the very extreme part of his coalition, even rebuilding Israeli settlements there.
Most of the public is not exactly there, however. There's a majority - not a huge one, but a clear majority - in favor of the second goal, returning all the hostages, which this deal achieved, and ending the war, even if the main goal of removing Hamas is not completely fulfilled. It's, of course, mostly been defanged, but it still governs the Gaza Strip, and we see it now deploying, governing, involved in the day after. So this incentive for Netanyahu is very split, and he's facing election within a year. So he's really torn between this coalition that is very far right, and the most extreme Israel has ever seen, and an Israeli public that is very weary of this war, very happy the hostages are back, but I - we should make clear, also very much disbelieving Hamas, as you said, not believing Hamas will disarm and expecting the government also to enforce the ceasefire forcefully.
So Netanyahu is going to hear from the Americans, essentially. You have to stick to the deal because there's one person who really has decided and said clearly and clearly has no more patience to this war continuing, wants to declare victory, and that's Trump. And Trump is not someone who has enormous attention to detail, I would say, and is interested in declaring victory and having everyone fall in line.
FADEL: So the only thing really keeping this on track is pressure from President Trump. Will that work for both Netanyahu and for Hamas?
SACHS: It's not the only thing. The domestic pressure, weariness is there, setting aside the moral failure in Gaza. There's also just a huge price that Israeli - ordinary Israelis have paid. So pressure from Trump is a huge part of it, but there's also a public that's sort of weary of this war ending it. I expect the war to probably end, but that does not mean we won't see more of these skirmishes going on.
FADEL: Natan Sachs with the Middle East Institute. Thank you for your time and your insights.
SACHS: Thank you very much. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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